The 18-Month Rule for Commercial Real Estate Refinancing in 2026

About 17% of all commercial real estate debt comes due in 2026. That means roughly one in five properties with a loan on it will need a plan for what happens next, and waiting until the last minute is no longer an option.

During a recent episode of Your CPA’s Take on Real Estate, host Daniel Roccanti sat down with Kyle Paxton to talk through commercial real estate refinancing and why owners need to start preparing far earlier than they might think. The discussion covered why the old assumptions from a lower rate environment no longer hold, which property types are under the most pressure and the specific timeline owners should be following before their debt matures.

Why the Old Playbook Doesn’t Work Anymore

A lot of commercial real estate debt was originated when rates were low, valuations were strong and rent growth projections were optimistic. None of that holds up in today’s market. Underwriting standards have tightened, capital is harder to access and the numbers that supported a loan a few years ago may not support one today.

Extensions, modifications and short term bridge solutions have helped some owners push maturities down the road, but that runway is running out for many properties. The conversation now isn’t simply “can I refinance.” It’s what a property can actually support today and what other options exist if the answer falls short.

Which Property Types Are Under the Most Pressure

Office continues to draw the most attention, with elevated vacancies and a wide range of outcomes depending on class and location. Multifamily is in better shape but not immune, especially in markets that saw heavy overbuilding after the pandemic. Hotels remain volatile by nature. Industrial has been strong but is not exempt from tighter lending standards as loans come up for renewal. Retail is split sharply between grocery anchored centers, which tend to refinance smoothly, and centers without a strong anchor tenant, which face a much harder path.

The Timeline Owners Should Be Following

One of the clearest takeaways from the episode is the rule of thumb Kyle Paxton laid out for owners with debt maturing in the near future: start 18 months out.

Here’s how that timeline breaks down:

18 to 12 Months Out: Diagnose the Problem

Gather documents, identify options and get an honest, conservative valuation of the property, not the number from when it was purchased or last financed.

12 to 9 Months Out: Start Talking to Your Lender

Begin the conversation about extensions, modifications or what loan value the lender is likely to offer. Starting early means having options instead of reacting to whatever the lender presents.

9 to 6 Months Out: Build Out a Few Different Plans

This is the point to prepare more than one strategy in case a clean refinance isn’t available, including whether a recapitalization or additional capital will be needed.

6 to 3 Months Out: Execute

By this stage, the lender is receiving packages and reports. Owners who started 18 months earlier have already used that time to improve their numbers and understand their options. Owners who wait until this point are largely accepting whatever the market gives them.

What This Means for Property Owners

Commercial real estate refinancing in 2026 is not a one size fits all process. Some owners will refinance cleanly. Others will need an extension, a modification or an infusion of new capital through preferred equity or another form of recapitalization. The properties that come out ahead are the ones where the owner started early, kept clean financials and stayed in ongoing contact with their lender rather than showing up only when the loan is about to mature.

If your property has debt maturing in the next 18 months, now is the time to review your debt schedule, chart your key metrics and start the conversation, not next year.

Watch the full episode for the complete breakdown from Daniel Roccanti and Kyle Paxton, including how lenders are evaluating deals today and what to do if a straight refinance isn’t the right fit for your property.

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