Global Manufacturing Data Shows Mixed Signals as U.S. Jobs Weaken
Originally published on December 10, 2025
Manufacturing leaders received mixed signals from the November economic data released this week. Global purchasing managers’ indices showed expansion in several Asian markets. At the same time, the U.S. and Europe struggled, and the ADP National Employment Report revealed unexpected job losses in manufacturing and other sectors.
U.S. Manufacturing Shows Two Different Pictures
The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.2 for November, down from 52.5 in October but still above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. A PMI reading above 50 indicates growing activity, while readings below 50 signal contraction.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI told a different story. The November index fell to 48.2 from 48.7 in October, marking the ninth consecutive month of contraction. New orders dropped to 47.4, the third month below 50, while the production index improved to 51.4 from 48.2, showing output holding up despite weaker demand.
The gap between these two surveys reflects differences in the sample sets. ISM tends to capture larger, traditional manufacturers who face pressure from tariffs and export challenges, while S&P Global surveys a broader cross-section of firms.
Employment Data Reveals Manufacturing Job Losses
The ADP National Employment Report for November showed private-sector employment fell by 32,000 jobs, compared to expectations for a modest gain and a revised 47,000 increase in October. Manufacturing shed 18,000 jobs, while construction lost 9,000 positions.
Small firms with one to 49 employees cut 120,000 positions, while medium and large firms added 51,000 and 39,000 jobs, respectively. Pay growth continued to slow, with job-stayers seeing 4.4 percent year-over-year increases, down from 4.5 percent in October.
According to Reuters, this unexpected decline contrasts with still-low weekly jobless claims and raises questions about the upcoming official non-farm payrolls report. For manufacturers, the ADP data confirms what ISM surveys have indicated: factories are reducing headcount even as output remains relatively stable.
Global Manufacturing Landscape Shows Regional Divide
A ranking of major countries’ manufacturing PMIs for November revealed sharp differences across regions. Thailand led with a reading of 56.8, followed by India at 56.6 and Singapore at 55.4. Several Asian economies, including Vietnam, Indonesia, and Hong Kong, posted readings above 52.
European manufacturing remained weak. The eurozone composite reading came in at 49.6, with Germany at 48.2 and France at 47.8—both nine-month lows. Spain and Italy performed better, with readings of 51.5 and 50.6, respectively.
The eurozone manufacturing sector reported declining new orders, falling export orders for the fifth consecutive month, and job cuts at the fastest pace since April. The output index slipped to 50.4, the weakest reading in nine months.
Services Sector Provides Offset to Manufacturing Weakness
The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, rose to 52.8 in November from 52.5 in October—the fastest pace in two and a half years. Services activity climbed to 53.6 from 53.0, the highest level since May 2023.
New business in services grew at the strongest rate in 18 months, with Ireland leading, Spain maintaining a strong performance, and Italy posting its best growth since April 2023. France saw private sector activity expand for the first time in 15 months.
In China, the services PMI slipped to 52.1 in November from 52.6 in October, the slowest pace of expansion in five months. Firms continued to shed jobs for a fourth straight month, while business confidence eased to its lowest level since April.
What Manufacturers Should Watch
The divergence between manufacturing and services activity, combined with softening employment data, creates an uncertain planning environment. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, manufacturing employment trends often signal broader economic shifts several months in advance.
Manufacturers should monitor several factors: new order trends, which fell in both U.S. surveys; export demand, which remains weak in Europe; and employment patterns, as workforce reductions typically precede output adjustments.
Our team helps manufacturers analyze economic indicators, manage cash flow through uncertain periods, and adjust production planning based on demand signals. Visit our Manufacturing Services page to learn how we support data-driven decision-making.
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