Tariff Changes Every Four Days Leave Manufacturers Struggling to Plan

Manufacturing leaders across the United States face a planning problem that has nothing to do with production capacity or workforce availability. Trade policy is changing so rapidly that companies cannot lock in sourcing decisions or commit to capital investments with any confidence. 

New data from Newmark’s Q3 2025 industrial market report shows that tariff policy has shifted once every four days on average this year. That frequency makes it nearly impossible for manufacturers and shippers to secure long-term contracts or build reliable cost forecasts.

The pace of change is affecting decision-making at every level. Companies hesitate to shift suppliers, open new facilities or invest in equipment when the rules governing import costs may be different in three months. Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Vice President and Senior Analyst at Moody’s, described the situation at the NextGen Supply Chain Conference in Nashville as tariff fog, a term that resonates with many plant managers facing similar uncertainty.

When Rules Keep Changing, Planning Becomes Guesswork

Quinn-Barabanov pointed to the core challenge facing manufacturers. Companies cannot predict what the tariff rate may be in three months, creating hesitation among supply chain leaders trying to determine whether to move suppliers, add production capacity or upgrade systems.

The Newmark report makes clear how frequent tariff adjustments complicate basic business functions. Modeling transportation costs and forecasting demand both require stable assumptions about input prices. When those assumptions change weekly, financial planning loses reliability. Recent industrial site moves involve consolidations rather than major expansions, which suggests companies prefer to reduce risk until the trade environment stabilizes.

How Tariffs Are Reshaping Sourcing Decisions

Tariffs have become a core factor in sourcing decisions, particularly when they affect construction materials and components used in manufacturing. Some suppliers are diversifying their sourcing geography, while others are shifting more production to domestic facilities to avoid volatility.

According to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, over 30 percent of firms now rank trade and tariff policies as their most pressing business concern. That represents more than triple the share from the previous quarter. Nearly one-third are reducing hiring plans as they navigate uncertainty.

The financial impact varies by sector and company size, but the pattern holds across the industry. Manufacturers face cost increases while simultaneously losing visibility into future pricing. Companies must choose between absorbing higher costs, passing them to customers, or finding operational efficiencies to offset the impact.

What Manufacturers Can Do Now

Companies cannot control trade policy, but they can improve how they respond to changes. The most effective approaches focus on building flexibility rather than predicting outcomes. That means maintaining relationships with multiple suppliers, investing in systems that provide real-time cost visibility and keeping management teams informed about policy developments as they occur.

Strategic planning and advisory services become more valuable when external variables increase. Working with advisors who track policy changes and understand their financial implications helps manufacturers adjust faster. Cash flow management becomes even more important in volatile trade environments. Companies with stronger balance sheets and larger reserves can weather sudden cost increases better than those operating with thin margins.

Quinn-Barabanov summed up the challenge by noting that manufacturers can plan for high costs, but they cannot plan when the rules keep changing.

Look Ahead With Support

Together, we help manufacturing leaders do Moore. Our accounting, assurance and advisory services support the financial strength of manufacturers working through trade policy uncertainty. Visit our Manufacturing Services page to learn how we help clients model scenarios, protect margins and make informed decisions when external conditions change rapidly.

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