Northeast Florida Manufacturers See Glimpse of Stability After Months of Decline
Originally published on December 17, 2025
Manufacturing leaders in Northeast Florida are beginning to see signs of stabilization. After eight consecutive months of contraction, the University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project reported a Purchasing Managers’ Index reading of 50 in November, indicating manufacturing activity held steady rather than declining further.
The flat reading marks a notable shift. While it doesn’t signal strong growth, it does reflect resilience in a region that has weathered challenging conditions throughout much of 2025. For manufacturers managing tight margins and uncertain demand, this modest stabilization offers a foundation for planning ahead.
Cautious Optimism Takes Hold
The survey’s Business Activity Outlook index registered 53, pointing to expectations that manufacturing activity will improve modestly over the next 12 months. UNF economist Albert Loh described the reading as cautious optimism rather than strong confidence, noting that firms foresee modest growth despite current challenges.
This forward-looking perspective matters. Even a slight expansion reading shows that most respondents anticipate better business activity heading into late 2026. For manufacturers in Jacksonville and surrounding areas, this measured confidence supports investment planning, hiring decisions, and overall momentum as the region moves into the new year.
Nationally, the picture remains more challenging. The Institute for Supply Management reported a November PMI of 48.2, indicating contraction across U.S. manufacturing. Many industries continue to grapple with tariffs, soft global demand, and policy uncertainty. Employment pressures persist nationally, with firms cutting headcount rather than hiring, and input prices continue to rise for materials such as steel and aluminum.
Regional Resilience Stands Out
Jacksonville’s flat PMI looks relatively positive when compared with deeper national declines. The region’s readings across new orders, output, inventories, delivery times, and business outlook suggest an economy holding steady despite mixed signals. Firms here reported modest growth in output, slight increases in materials purchases, and improving supply chain conditions.
However, employment remains a concern. The survey’s employment index read 45 in November, suggesting that more manufacturers cut positions or left openings unfilled. This contracting employment reading reflects broader workforce challenges that manufacturers across the region continue to face.
Understanding how your manufacturing operation compares to regional trends can help you make better decisions about staffing, inventory, and capital investment. Our team helps manufacturers analyze cost structures, manage cash flow, and plan for growth even in uncertain conditions. Visit our Manufacturing Services page to see how we support manufacturers in Florida and beyond.
What This Means for Manufacturers
The shift from contraction to stability matters for manufacturers evaluating their 2026 plans. While the improvement is modest, it suggests that conditions may be bottoming out. Manufacturers who use this period to strengthen their financial reporting, refine their cost structures, and prepare for potential growth opportunities will be better positioned when demand picks up.
Supply chain conditions are improving regionally, and firms are beginning to rebuild materials purchases. These signs point to manufacturers preparing for future production rather than simply managing through contraction. The key is to maintain operational discipline while staying ready to respond when market conditions improve.
Looking ahead, the outlook for 2026 depends on several factors, including national economic conditions, policy decisions, and global demand patterns. However, regional resilience in Northeast Florida offers manufacturers a relatively stable platform to work from. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, national manufacturing data for November will be released on December 18, providing additional context for how regional performance compares to broader trends.
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