First Coast Manufacturing Shows Modest Recovery but Tariff Concerns Linger

Manufacturing activity on Florida’s First Coast showed signs of expansion in September after struggling through the summer months, according to the latest Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey from the University of North Florida. The report indicates improvement in several key areas, but manufacturers remain cautious as they face tariff uncertainties and lingering cost pressures.

The survey showed that output prices, average input prices, supplier delivery times, and business activity outlook all expanded in September. Other key components such as output, quantity of input purchased, and backlogs of work remained unchanged for the month. While these results mark progress from earlier in 2025, the gains suggest manufacturers are operating carefully rather than aggressively expanding production.

Manufacturing Holds Steady Amid Market Uncertainty

Albert Loh, interim dean of UNF’s Coggin College of Business who oversees the survey, noted that the manufacturing sector faces a mixed picture. Production held steady and prices showed only mild inflationary pressure, but the overall data suggests local manufacturers are dealing with soft demand and ongoing cost challenges.

“Both local and national data point to a manufacturing economy operating at low gear, with most firms focused on efficiency, cost control, and maintaining operations amid market uncertainty,” Loh said in his summary of the report.

UNF researchers from the JEMS project reach out to First Coast manufacturing companies each month to assess their position on production and several other factors. The September survey represents a notable improvement from August’s report and July’s analysis, which showed that 10 out of 12 manufacturing sectors in Northeast Florida contracted during that period.

The improvement in output prices and business activity outlook indicates that manufacturers see potential for better conditions ahead. However, the unchanged readings in output and input purchases suggest companies are not yet ready to commit to significant production increases or inventory builds. This cautious stance reflects broader concerns about demand stability and cost management.

Understanding how regional manufacturing trends affect your business planning is critical for making sound decisions about inventory, staffing, and capital investments. Our team helps manufacturers analyze cost structures, manage cash flow during uncertain periods, and plan for market changes. Visit our Manufacturing Services page to see how we support manufacturers in Florida and throughout the Southeast.

Tariffs and Cost Pressures Create Caution

Beneath the headline numbers, Jacksonville’s manufacturing sub-indexes reveal steady but cautious activity. Output and supplier deliveries remained stable, but new orders and export orders both contracted, indicating that customers are still hesitant to commit to large purchases or new projects. This hesitation reflects broader economic uncertainty and concerns about future demand conditions.

Tariffs and elevated material costs continue to pressure margins for First Coast manufacturers. Companies managing thin margins must carefully balance pricing decisions against the risk of losing business to competitors. The ongoing uncertainty about tariff policies makes it difficult for manufacturers to plan confidently for future material costs and pricing strategies.

Manufacturers nationwide continue to face elevated input costs compared to pre-pandemic levels. For Jacksonville area manufacturers, these cost pressures combine with regional factors such as workforce availability and logistics costs to create complex planning challenges.

The risk of a broader economic slowdown or mild recession remains a concern for manufacturing leaders. Companies that maintain strong financial reporting and cost visibility can make better decisions about when to reduce capacity and when to prepare for potential growth opportunities. Loh concluded that Jacksonville’s manufacturing sector appears to be in a holding pattern, resilient but waiting for clearer economic signals before resuming growth.

Planning Through Uncertainty

The September improvement offers some encouragement, but manufacturers should plan for continued caution in the months ahead. Companies that use this period to strengthen their financial systems, refine cost structures, and improve operational efficiency will be better positioned when market conditions become clearer.

Managing working capital effectively becomes even more important during periods of uncertainty. Manufacturers must balance the need to maintain adequate inventory and production capacity against the risk of overcommitting resources when demand remains soft. Companies that can respond quickly to changing conditions have an advantage over competitors locked into less flexible operations.

Want more clarity on how cost changes and market uncertainty affect your bottom line? Our team helps manufacturers analyze cost structures and develop strategies for managing through uncertain conditions. Contact us today to discuss how to strengthen your manufacturing operation’s financial foundation.

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