South Florida Real Estate Professionals Watch New York Mayor Election Results

The day after Zohran Mamdani won New York City’s mayoral election, real estate professionals gathered at a Miami forum to discuss what the result might mean for their market. Some brokers and developers believe the election of a democratic socialist could drive wealthy New Yorkers to relocate south.

Election Sparks Real Estate Speculation

At a forum hosted by The Real Deal, a national real estate publication, Miami’s property professionals focused less on local politics and more on the mayoral race 1,300 miles north. Stuart Elliott, the editor in chief and chief executive officer of The Real Deal, noted that the New York election dominated morning conversations.

The speculation began months earlier. From the moment Mamdani won the Democratic primary in June, real estate circles from Miami to Palm Beach discussed whether his progressive policies might prompt more wealthy New Yorkers to move south.

South Florida has historically attracted Latin Americans leaving left-leaning governments in their home countries. During the pandemic, the state’s relative lack of restrictions drew new residents from New York, including many who registered as Republicans and contributed to Florida’s political shift to the right.

Political Commentary Fuels Discussion

Florida’s Republican politicians have promoted the narrative of a New York exodus. Governor Ron DeSantis spent months suggesting that Mamdani would be the realtor of the year in Palm Beach, claiming his progressive policies would drive up mansion prices as New Yorkers relocated.

By Wednesday morning, DeSantis posted a survey on X asking if Florida’s response to Mamdani’s election should be to build a Florida border wall, tariff all transplants or recruit new transplants.

At the Miami forum, attendees gathered among expo booths showcasing luxury condo towers, high-end kitchen appliances and investment opportunities in Panama and Puerto Rico. 

Developer Perspectives on Market Impact

Kevin Maloney, founder and chief executive officer of Property Markets Group, said from the stage that he contributed to Mamdani’s campaign not because he supported his policies but because the candidate might be good for business. Maloney compared the situation to Bill de Blasio’s tenure, suggesting he was a fan of de Blasio because he believed the former mayor would damage the city. Maloney predicted Mamdani might end the city, and as an entrepreneur, he thinks in five years developers can purchase properties at very low prices.

Ian Bruce Eichner, chairman and chief executive of The Continuum Company, said he was not optimistic about New York under Mamdani. However, he cautioned that Miami faces a similar problem to New York with its lack of housing for working people.

Regional Market Reality Differs from Speculation

Florida continues growing overall, but South Florida has been losing residents. The region’s high cost of living presents challenges. A recent survey by the Business and Economic Polling Initiative at Florida Atlantic University found that nearly half of respondents were seriously considering moving elsewhere because of expenses.

South Florida’s demographic picture includes additional complications. While Latin Americans and other immigrants remain the region’s top real estate customers, they struggle more often now to obtain U.S. visas, according to Carlos Rosso, founder of Rosso Development.

Nikki Fried, chairwoman of the Florida Democratic Party, told reporters that she does not believe New Yorkers are preparing to arrive in large numbers. She called it an emotional reaction and suggested everyone should take a deep breath.

Industry Sentiment Remains Bullish

Real estate forum attendees appeared unconvinced by cautious assessments. Sam Nazarian, a Miami hospitality entrepreneur, said in the opening session that probably 80 percent of brokers woke up that morning and had a shot of vodka because they expect to be busy handling new business.

The speculation reflects how political developments in other regions can generate optimism among real estate professionals, even when local market conditions present their own affordability and supply challenges. Whether the election outcome translates into sustained migration patterns or represents primarily short-term speculation remains to be seen.

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